Spot Rates Are Up 47% Year Over Year — What That Means If You Are Shipping This Fall

The truckload market in 2026 has turned in a way it has not since 2022. If you were budgeting off last year's numbers, they are stale.

The numbers

Truckload spot rates reached $3.45 per mile following Roadcheck week — up 47% year over year, according to Traffix. For the six weeks before that, rates had been running near $3.00 per mile.

Tender rejection rates climbed to 5.7%, the highest in four years. Spot volumes rose 44% within Uber Freight's network in Q2 2026, while overall shipping volumes were up 8% year over year.

Most telling: spot linehaul briefly crossed above contract rates for the first time since 2022.

Why it matters more than the headline

A spot rate spike on its own is noise. A spot rate spike alongside a four-year high in tender rejections is a capacity signal. It means shippers are working further down their routing guides because their contracted carriers are saying no.

Jim Mancini, VP of customer success at C.H. Robinson, described routing guide "failures are up significantly, with shippers exhausting their list of preferred contract carriers."

Nathan Adams, VP of transportation procurement at Uber Freight, characterized the market as showing "peak-season behavior before demand has fully ramped" — meaning the pressure arrived early.

What the forecasts say

Uber Freight expects spot rates to run 20–25% above prior-year levels through the remainder of 2026, with contract rates projected 8% above 2025 levels and rising sequentially into mid-2027.

Alex Fuller, senior director of revenue management at Traffix, expects "this upcycle in rates is going to continue at least through the end of the year, if not, another year or more."

Forecasts are forecasts. But the common thread across them is that there is less excess capacity in the system to absorb disruption than there was a year ago.

If you are a shipper

Lock what you can lock. In a market where routing guides are failing, the value of a carrier who actually answers the phone and actually shows up is higher than the difference between two rate quotes.

If you are an owner-operator

This is the part of the cycle where the carrier you run under matters most. Rising spot rates only reach you if your carrier passes them through and keeps you loaded. Ask hard questions about splits, fuel surcharge, and how fast you get paid.

Honest Transportation is family-owned and operated. If you want to talk about running under our authority, or about capacity on a lane, call (866) 474-2232.

Sources

Transport Topics, "Truckload Spot Rates Expected to Stay Elevated Through 2026." Figures attributed to Traffix, Uber Freight, and C.H. Robinson as reported.